Summer Break | 450 Class Midseason Review & Notes

July 18, 2019

2019 LUCAS OIL PRO MOTOCROSS CHAMPIONSHIP | COMPLETE COVERAGE

Let’s act like this one weekend break in the 2019 Lucas Oil Pro Motocross Championship is our summer break? After seven rounds of racing around the country, we have a solid understanding of how the 450 class has shaped up thus far and a good idea of what will happen in the last 10 motos of the summer. Below is a brief synopsis of the top-10 riders in the point standings, plus a few other notable riders. Click here for an identical article on the 250 class…

Eli Tomac | 304 Points | Laps Led – 57 | Moto Wins – 6 | Average Finish 2.2

The two-time and defending champion is on pace to add another title to his record. It’s impossible to bet against the rider a runs the number one plate and through the 14 motos, Tomac won six of them and has finished no worse than seventh place. As impressive as the sheer number of wins Tomac has already claimed is, the timing they’ve occurred might be more important (Hangtown Moto Two, sweep at Fox Raceway, Thunder Valley Moto Two, Florida Moto Two, RedBud Moto One). Tomac was in a good place after the first three rounds, then stacked points with a number second and third place finishes from High Point to RedBud. Wins and consistency (a 2.2 average finish is astounding) have put him more than a moto’s worth of points clear of the rest in the field.

But like always, there have been the up and down days we’ve come to expect from Tomac. A fifth-place in Moto One at Thunder Valley was forgettable, but his failure to fly through the pack after a bad start in Moto One at Florida was an eyebrow-raising moment. Few figured it was a physical limit in Florida; almost all assumed it was a personal-mental block that rattled him for 30-minutes plus two laps. With the next rider on the list in the middle of a strong run of results, Tomac cannot risk anymore “off days” through the final five rounds.

Marvin Musquin | 270 Points | Laps Led – 42 | Moto Wins – 3 | Average Finish – 3.8

The first eight motos of the year did not go great for Marvin Musquin. Issues like bad starts and crashes in the first laps, or just missed bike setup, kept him from finding the front pack at key moments in the year and he was in a sizeable hole, points-wise, three rounds in. There were never concerns of the Red Bull KTM rider’s speed, because he came from the very back of the pack (often outside the top-20) to respectable spots, and he had lap times on pace or faster than the race winner’s most of the time. It cannot be stressed enough: problems in the initial moments of a moto were his downfall.

Everything took a turn for the better in Florida, as Musquin’s technical talents on the bike and familiarity with the heat helped him go 1-3 and win the day’s overall. He backed it up a week later with a 1-2 riders and another overall in the sands of Southwick, and the points scored pulled him out of the hole and into contention for the title. That’s not to say that he’s been flawless since Florida, because he crashed on the opening lap of Moto Two there and on the opening lap of Moto One at RedBud; charges back to the top-three salvaged his day. Musquin is known for making a charge in the last half of the season and that seems to be shaping up right now. Will it be enough this time around?

Ken Roczen | 264 Points | Laps Led – 76 | Moto Wins – 3 | Average Finish – 4.4

There were concerns about Ken Roczen’s health before the gate dropped on the Lucas Oil Pro Motocross Championship. Issues with energy, something he’s traced back to antibiotics from a severe reaction to lime in the dirt at the San Diego Supercross, were cited as the reason for his struggles late in the Supercross championship and many were worried if the heat of the summer would make things even worse. Mild weather at the first four rounds worked in Roczen’s favor and the Team Honda HRC rider won three motos (Hangtown, Thunder Valley, High Point) and two overalls (Hangtown and Thunder Valley), which put him at the top of the points early on. Speed is Roczen’s strength and he has the most laps led so far this season (76 to Tomac’s 57).

Unfortunately for Roczen, the heat eventually caught up with him and he hasn’t been in full fighting form since a crash during Moto Two in Florida. Southwick’s 12-10 scores were the lowest point and struggles with setup of the CRF450R compounded the problem. He threw up in his helmet during Moto One at RedBud, something he wasn’t able to pin on one thing, but salvaged the day with 6-3 motos. If the weather stays mellow through the rest of the year, he and the team are hopeful they can manage the problem (Budds Creek is really the only round that is historically a scorcher) and finish a full calendar year of racing for the first time in three years.

Jason Anderson | 252 Points | Laps Led – 0 | Moto Wins – 0 | Average Finish – 4.1

No laps led, no Moto wins. With that said, it’s strange to say this has been a breakout summer for Jason Anderson, but that’s what 2019 has been. The Rockstar Energy Husqvarna Factory Racing rider has never been known for his outdoor prowess, but he’s been in contention for wins since the start of the season and seems poised for 450 overall in the next few weeks. With a few fastest qualifying lap time honors to his credit, Anderson has proven he has the all-out speed to be the best rider on any given day.

But doing that over the full duration of a Moto is another thing. Anderson seems to lack the endurance that some around him have and that’s been his biggest setback. It’s something he’s aware of and has stated openly that he’s working in the time between races to get to the next level. The last rider with a possible shot at the title, he needs to click off a list of wins immediately to stay within sight of the top spot.

Cooper Webb | 238 Points | Laps Led – 10 | Moto Wins – 0 | Average Finish – 4.8

Taking the necessary steps to run to a career-first Supercross title was a bit more important than testing for the outdoors. Cooper Webb was way off the radar in the first few rounds of the summer, when attention seemed to focus on the Tomac-Roczen points duel, but the Red Bull KTM rider has thrown his name in the running for podium finishes since the first race at Hangtown and has not finished outside the top-10 in any moto. Down 66 to Tomac, it’s fair to consider him out of the running for the championship, but he can make an impact on the series if he keeps claiming podium spots or even wins from those ahead of him in the points.

It’s widely known that 2019 was to be a rebuilding year for Webb and winning the 450 SX title was more than enough of an accomplishment to put him back near the top. With 24 rounds on the year to his credit (17 Supercross rounds, seven National rounds), this is the most racing that Webb has ever done without injury or issue. It’s important he gets through this year in one piece and use it to grow from in 2020.

Zach Osborne | 227 Points | Laps Led – 15 | Moto Wins – 1 | Average Finish – 3.6 (Missed Two Motos With Injury)

We’re unsure if we can call Zach Osborne’s summer results a surprise because we all figured he was going to be in the mix for podium finishes and the random Moto win in 2019. It’s rare to see a rookie rider in the 450 class log 12 top-five finishes in just as many motos, but that’s exactly what the Rockstar Energy Husqvarna Factory Racing rider has done. He’s mixed it up with guys that have been at the top of the sport for years and hasn’t wavered and ran as high as third in the series standings (he was tied with teammate Anderson for the spot). A dominant win in Moto Two at Southwick is no doubt the brightest moment of Osborne’s summer on the bike.

Osborne’s summer took a hard turn just days after his Southwick win, when a practice crash left him with an injured shoulder and he was unable to race RedBud, He’ll be back on the starting line at Spring Creek, though admittedly far from full strength in the crucial area, How he’ll do in the next few motos is hard to predict, and that’s okay, because he’s already proved to himself and others he can win.

Justin Barcia | 170 Points | Laps Led – 0 | Moto Wins – 0 | Average Finish – 10.1

Justin Barcia’s 2019 season has been tough. A pair of wrist injuries that Monster Energy Yamaha Factory Racing rider sustained late in the Supercross season interfered with any sort of pre-summer testing he could have done on the YZ450F, and he hasn’t been the factor some figured he’d be. That’s not to say he’s not trying or putting in the results, because he’s clearly doing all he can when on the track and has finished around the top-10 in nearly every moto. An inability to get to the front of the pack early on (note the lack of laps led), some mechanical errors with the bike, and a lack of health to push a race-pace for the full duration are what has worked against him.

Barcia hasn’t had the cleanest bill of health over the course of his career, so it’s worth noting the way he’s stayed on the series even with the issues he’s encountered. A good start in a moto or better yet, a mud race, could swing some momentum into his favor. It’s pretty clear that he and Yamaha want to build in the closing races and get to the end of the year healthy so that 2020 prep can start without issue.

Blake Baggett | 159 Points | Laps Led – 18 | Moto Wins – 1 | Average Finish – 10.9

Blake Baggett’s summer is hard to explain. His 6-10 results at Hangtown were respectable, especially when compared to his past issues at the track. A hard crash in Moto One a Fox Raceway injured the Rocky Mountain ATV-MC/WPS/KTM rider’s hand, which was reflected in his riding at Fox Raceway and Thunder Valley (Baggett was unable to ride much during the week immediately after the injury), but he bounced back in a big way with the flag to flag Moto One win at High Point. It seemed like he was going to turn the series around after that, but a crash in Moto Two at High Point seems to have him at less than full strength.

The Moto win is big for Baggett and continues his occasional presence at the top in the 450 class and it’s his only podium level ride this season. It seems like he and the team are doing what they have to in order to get through the rest of the summer, as they manage the hand injury and claim top-10 finishes. The time off should have helped, and we wait to see how he closes out the year.

Justin Bogle | 150 Points | Laps Led – 4 | Moto Wins – 0 | Average Finish – 10.4

It took Justin Bogle a little bit of time to get acclimated to the KTM 450 SX-F in Supercross, but once he did, his results immediately improved. That looks to be the case again outdoors, as the Rocky Mountain ATV-MC/WPS/KTM rider had slow to start the season with 10-9-12-12-10-10 results through the first six motos, then 19-12 and 11-13 finishes at sandy tracks like Florida and Southwick. But things took a big turn at RedBud, as Bogle got into the lead at the start of Moto One, led laps, and finished fourth, then backed it up with a sixth in Moto Two. Now that he knows he has what it takes, expect to see more top-five finishes through the close of the year.

For how things were looking for Bogle in early December 2018, this year has been a massive step forward. The last-minute fill-in ride with the KTM team gave him a much-needed opportunity to show his speed after two tough years and now that they’ve decided to keep him on through the remainder of the summer, even with Benny Bloss back, Bogle can show he can make it through a full 29-race season without injury. He is in need of a deal for 2020 and beyond, and his results through the first seven months of the year certainly merit a contract somewhere.

Dean Ferris | 136 Points | Laps Led – 0 | Moto Wins – 0 | Average Finish – 9.7 (Out For Rest Of 2019)

Dean Ferris was tapped by Monster Energy Yamaha Factory Racing for the full summer on a factory bike, first as Aaron Plessinger’s fill-in and then as a supported rider. The Australian was expected to be around the top-10 through all twelve rounds and did just that, with a sixth-place Moto at Thunder Valley being his best result. All seemed well, especially as Ferris was within the top-10 in the series points and on pace for improvement, but then things went sideways around the time Plessinger returned. Ferris was reportedly unsatisfied with the pay (fill-in rides aren’t the most lucrative) among other things, so he and the team decided to part ways after Southwick and he’s back in Australia aboard a KTM for the remainder of that country’s outdoor series.

It’s strange that the two parties couldn’t come to an agreement, especially because Ferris had done well enough to secure a spot in the top-10 of the standings and was often just a few points back from Barcia. Another bike in the top-10 would have been huge for Yamaha (it’s impossible for Plessinger to do so this summer) and for Ferris’ career.

Fredrik Noren | 132 Points | Laps Led – 0 | Moto Wins – 0 | Average Finish – 11.6

Privateer feel-good story of the year. Fredrik Noren started the summer with a modestly modified Honda CRF450R and plans for a summer-long road trip to follow the series with his wife and infant daughter. How the independent rider would fare on the track was uncertain, but by round two, everyone knew Noren had something in him and he went 9-9 at Fox Raceway. He stayed near the top-10 through the next few rounds, all while driving to the races and even handling most of his own bike work, until 10-7 finishes in Florida got the attention of the JGRMX/Yoshimura/Suzuki Factory Racing crew. Now set to finish the year on the factory bike, Noren seems more confident and quicker than ever, evident in his 5-7 finishes at Southwick.

Is this the start of something big for Noren? We’re only two races into his deal, so it’s sort of early to say, but he works well with the East Coast team and has the potential to finish in the top-seven of any given moto. Expecting it is one thing and doing it is another, so it’s all on Noren in the final five rounds.

OTHER NOTABLE RIDERS

Lorenzo Locurcio

With Noren now in a factory rig, Locurcio has become the top privateer in the series. He has been solid through the first part of the year and things really came on in Florida, when he seemed to step up the intensity. Locurcio has the talent to do well in every moto, but has faced bike issues a few times and had to either deal with the outcome or hold back on his riding to nurse the thing to the finish line. Keep an eye on him through the rest of the year.

Benny Bloss

The Rocky Mountain ATV-MC/WPS/KTM rider joined the series at High Point (he missed all of SX and the first three rounds due to a torn ACL) but has been in the mix from the first gate drop. A list of top-10 finishes shows that Bloss isn’t “easing into” the series, which is important because he needs to earn a ride for 2020. Watch for him at tracks like Spring Creek, Unadilla, and Budds Creek, he seems to do well there.